My Super Tuesday Projections

Let's test my political acumen. Most likely, my stunningly accurate predictions in 06 were a fluke! Here, I'm even more emotionally involved, which undoubtedly colors my predictions and clogs my logic, so I've (somewhat arbitrarily) toned down my predictions. My assumption is that Hillary will outdo the polls in the Northeastern states except for in New York, will eke out wins in California and Missouri, and blow Obama out in Tennessee, Arkansas, and New York. Obama will barely win Delaware, Alabama, and Kansas, blow Hillary out in Georgia and Illinois, and win solidly in most of the caucus states.

As for how this will pan out in terms of delegates, I don't have the patience to do the math. Let's make a rough guess that Hillary is up by about 35 delegates on Wednesday morning.

Illinois: Obama, 62% - 31%

Georgia : Obama, 59% - 34%

Alaska: Obama, 53% - 41%

Idaho: Obama, 52% - 41%

North Dakota: Obama, 52% - 43%

Utah: Obama, 52% - 42%

Kansas: Obama, 50% - 46%

Colorado: Obama, 51% - 45%

Alabama: Obama, 49% - 47%

Delaware: Obama, 47% - 46%

California: Clinton, 47.5% - 47%

Missouri: Clinton, 48% - 46%

Minnesota: Clinton, 48% - 45%

Connecticut: Clinton, 49% - 45%

New Mexico: Clinton, 49% - 44%

Arizona: Clinton, 51% - 42%

New Jersey: Clinton, 51% - 42%

Massachusetts: Clinton, 52% - 42%

Oklahoma: Clinton, 52% - 41%

New York: Clinton, 54% - 40%

Tennessee: Clinton, 56% - 39%

Arkansas: Clinton, 58% - 36%